2016). Elements and Controls of Weather and Climate, 5.3. Global climate models predict relative humidity (RH) in the western US will decrease at a rate of about 0.1 0.6 percentage points per decade, albeit with seasonal differences (most drying in spring and summer), geographical variability (greater declines in the interior), stronger reductions for greater anthropogenic radiative forcing, and notable spread among the models. From all these five-year moving averages, long-term seasonal rainfall apart from in the bega season showed a positive trend during the 35-year period. During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. To achieve this objective, long-term historical monthly rainfall and temperature data were recorded and analyzed for more than 100 years (1900-2016). Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). The changes in the mean of hydrologic states and fluxes by the end of the 21st century are statistically robust, whereas changes in the variance are not found to be statistically significant. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. 2014). In nearly all cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower than 1%. The farming system is characterized by traditional, rainfed, labour-intensive and subsistence-oriented or hand to mouth systems. The monthly rainfall data are for 132 points of 10 10 km grids reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite observations, which cover the period between 1983 and 2013. Mean annual temperature varies from over 30 0Cin the tropicallowlands to less than 100c at very high altitudes.The Bale Mountains are among highlands where lowest mean annual temperatures are recorded.The highest mean maximum temperature in the country is recorded in the Afar Depression.Moreover, lowlands of north-western, western and south-eastern Ethiopian experiences meanmaximum temperatures of more than 300C.Environmental influences have their own traditional expressions in Ethiopia and there are localterms denoting temperature zones as shown in the table below: The temporal distribution of Ethiopian temperature is characterized by extremes. The shift takes place when the trade winds from the north retreat giving the space forequatorial westerlies. In Ethiopia, traveling from one area to another can mean shifting from 60 degrees Fahrenheit (15 degrees Celsius) to 95 degrees Fahrenheit (35 degrees Celsius) in a matter of hours. The rate and variability of increasing temperature have dramatically increased, making it more difficult for local communities to foresee the intensity and magnitude of temperature even for the next few years. 2011; Pachauri et al. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporalvariabilities.Rainfall in Ethiopia is the result is influenced by the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). Likewise, the increase of surface temperature will adversely affect the availability of water resources, distribution, intensity and magnitude of rainfall in the long term (Barnett et al. 2005). During the years 1985 and 1986 the rainfall was recorded as being slightly above the mean. Soil management: Soil erosion and degradation reduces crop productivity for traditional farming practices (particularly for mountainous area like the Beressa watershed), as erosion and degradation occurs at a higher rate than fertile soil formation. Gridded rainfall and temperature data were gathered from CenTrends Great Horn of Africa v1 and CRU . The percentage changes in maximum temperature were found to be at a minimum (4.00%) and maximum (37.60%) in the GIN and ENW stations respectively. Figure5 shows the spatiotemporal distribution of mean annual, minimum and maximum temperatures of the Beressa watershed. NB: Kiremit: Summer; Belg: Spring; Bega: winter. 2014). Specifically, we examine and evaluate multi-model, multi-scenario climate change projections and seven extreme temperature and precipitation indices over the eastern Himalaya (EH) and western Himalaya-Karakoram (WH) regions for the 21st century. In the year 1987, the incidence of annual rainfall recorded the lowest amount. Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. For most developing countries of the world, agriculture is the basis of the economy. Conversely, the southeasterlies from the Indian Ocean provide rain to the highlands ofSomalia, and to the central and southeastern lowlands and highlands of Ethiopia. In Ethiopia, as in allplaces in the tropics, the air is frost free and changes in solar angles are small making intensesolar radiation. Our analyses demonstrate that there will be an increase in precipitation intensity and a decrease in frequency over Zambia from the middle of the 21st century. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. The percentage changes in minimum temperature were found to be at minimum (1.90%) and maximum (52.40%) in GIN and DBS stations, respectively. Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities. You can download the paper by clicking the button above. On the other hand, 19 years (54.3%) recorded more than the annual average rainfall. The researches and analysis in this study indicates that, while climate change is likely to pose serious threats to development in the RM, it also has the potential to bring opportunities. We used 12-member ensembles of General Circulation Models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) and Phase 5 (CMIP5) to evaluate climate-attributed changes in the hydrology of the Mataquito river basin in central Chile, South America. Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . Kiremit season rainfall revealed a significantly increasing trend of about 1.62 mm/year and 31.79% at DB station and the magnitude of significantly decreasing trend was 0.90 mm/year and 16.20% at SD station. (2011) and Manandhar et al. Afar and parts ofEritrean coastal areas experience rainfall in this period. 2015). However, the magnitude of the significantly decreasing trend was observed at SD station (0.90 mm/year and 16.20% change) and the significantly decreasing trend of belg season rainfall varied between 0.12 mm/year and 10.00% at GIN station to a significantly increasing trend of 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% at DB station. Although atmospheric moisture content increases, this is more than compensated for by higher air temperatures, leading to declining RH. Southern part ofEthiopia receives highest records of temperature in autumn and spring following the relativeshift of the sun; whereas in the northern part of the country, summer season is characterized byhigher temperature.It has to be noted that certain seasons should have special considerations. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. For instance, the variability, intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall affect crop production, especially for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the livelihoods of the population are dependent on subsistence and rainfed farming (Hulme et al. Therefore, in order to know the yields, annual rainfall is less important for prediction. The reduction in precipitation is projected to be steepest over Northwestern Province and lessens southwards. The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011. Therefore, soil management practice is one of the most important mechanisms for climate change adaptation strategies because crops grown on fertile soils with a deeper soil profile and structure can store extra moisture and enable access to sufficient amounts of water. s u m m a r y Due to global warming the climate of central Chile is expected to experience dramatic changes in the 21st century including declining precipitation, earlier streamflow peaks, and a greater proportion of precipitation falling as rain. For instance belg (spring) rain is more constrained by cyclonic activity than kiremit (summer season) rain. 2001; Kurukulasuriya & Mendelsohn 2008). Xn signify n data points (for monthly as well as annual), in which Xj signifies the data point at time of j. In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Change Impacts in the Republic of Moldova: Researches, Studies, Solutions / Lilia Taranu, Dumitru Deveatii, Lidia Trescilo [et al.] In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. A significantly declining trend of bega season rainfall was observed in all stations with the trend magnitude of 0.61 mm/year and 7.50% in GIN station to 0.21 mm/year and 56.40% in DBS station. Is it warming or cooling? Continuously increasing temperature, together with the variability and fluctuation of seasonal and inter-annual rainfall is a root cause for the decrease and fluctuation of crop production. According to Griggs & Noguer (2002), Babel et al. How can we respond to the changing climate? 2007; Fu et al. This For instance, unlikeother parts of Ethiopia, the southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature. The incidence of negative anomalies occurred during the 1980s and 1990s (14 from 16 years rainfall). Some other studies used seasonal or annual rainfall and temperature trend and variability analysis (Conway & Schipper 2011). Temperature variability showed significantly in the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period. Following theposition of the overhead sun, the ITCZ shifts north and south of the equator. The MannKendall test results showed that the annual and seasonal rainfall trend was highly variable. 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . As can be seen from this figure, during the summer (kiremit) season the distribution of rainfall is slightly better than the spring and winter season, and varies from 4595 and 1231 mm/season respectively. At the annual scale, maximum and minimum temperatures significantly increased in over 33% of the Basin at a rate of 0.1 and 0.15 C per decade, respectively; however, the western part (12%) of the Basin experienced declining trends on annual and seasonal timescales. For instance, during the years 19811984, the trend of annual rainfall was lower than the mean long-term rainfall, although slight recovery was shown between 1985 and 1986. Climatic variability in the past has been increasing and from the trends suggested in different studies, may further increase in the near future, putting urgent emphasis on how the community perceives the extent of climate change in order to design coping and adaptation strategies (Belay et al. Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. This study involves the observation of climatic variables, i.e. Another study by Di Falco et al. Five years moving average rainfall (19802014). The minimum and maximum temperatures have increased by 0.8 and 1.1 C/year, respectively. The MK test, Sen's slope and precipitation concentration index (PCI) were applied. During this period,the Northeast Trade Winds carrying non-moisture-laden dominates the region. Geological Processes and the Resulting Landforms of Ethiopia and the Horn, 2.5. The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. Time series of all MMA precipitation indices exhibit significant increasing trends over the 19012099 period. After visual identification of the outliers, each of the values was obtained using a normal ratio technique. As already explained. Therefore, information related to various climatic parameters of the area to the local level is of paramount importance in order to plan for other development issues. To browse Academia.edu and the wider internet faster and more securely, please take a few seconds toupgrade your browser. The mean annual rainfall of the basin spatially varies from 417 to 1012 mm, with a noticeable temporal variation at a monthly time scale. **10% level of significant. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. In order to correct change points in the time historical series, the Adapted Caussinus Mestre Algorithm for homogenising Networks of Temperature series homogeneity test is used. The region cases the risk of rejecting the null hypothesis H0 when it is true is lower 1. That the annual average rainfall southern and southwestern highlands experience reducedtemperature most developing countries of the overhead,. And minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period.! Basis of the Beressa watershed during the 35-year period manage the data quality, data series were in... Are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011 Horn of Africa v1 and.! 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